What Does Trump Mean For Travel Between The United States and India

Since the airline industry started recovering from the COVID pandemic, the international aviation world has focused on India as the fastest-growing aviation market. India has one of the fastest-growing economies, bringing demand for business travel within the country, leisure travel done by people with newfound wealth, and even international travel, as India’s trade with the world is increasing massively. As a result, the segment representing air travel from American to Indian cities is growing, currently dominated by hub and spoke airlines like Emirates, Cathay Pacific, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, and Qatar Airways, but there is a recent rise in nonstop flight options.

Before the COVID pandemic, Indian flag carrier Air India and United States Airlines were keen on tapping into this segment. In 2016, Air India launched its first-ever nonstop flight from Delhi to San Francisco, the first-ever nonstop flight from India to the west coast of the United States. This route has been very profitable for the airline, with San Francisco becoming the most served US city. The airline currently has nonstop flights to SFO from Mumbai, Bengaluru, and New Delhi. On top of just Air India, there have also been attempts by US airlines to get into the market, including the likes of United Airlines, Delta Airlines, and American Airlines.

In early 2020, American Airlines planned to launch a flight from Seattle to Bengaluru to target business travelers in the tech industry and demand for South Indian travelers nationwide. While proposing a pretty untapped segment, the route was canceled due to the COVID pandemic seriously impacting the airline. As of today, American airlines has tried to build some kind of an Indian footprint of some kind, with the introduction of a flight from New York to New Delhi, a popular route of Air India. In the meantime, Delta Airlines also furthered its Indian footprint, adding a flight from New York to Mumbai, connecting two global financial hubs with hopes of attracting business travel.

Out of all the US airlines, the one that has tried its hand the most at entering the Indian market has to be United. United Airlines has launched its flights on the same routes Air India embarks on while maintaining their partnership with Air India. During 2021, United Airlines was flying the San Francisco to Delhi route, planning to also hop on the San Francisco to Bengaluru route and offering flights to both Delhi and Mumbai from Newark. Unfortunately, the Ukraine-Russia war has led to pushback of all US airline flights to India, other than those from New York and Newark, as they are the only ones that don’t require flying over Russian airspace. In the meantime, though, Air India, recently acquired by the Tata group, has been able to eat into this market share, having the competitive advantage of being able to fly over Russia with India’s neutral stance on the current war, which could end in 2025 with Trump coming into office.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War On Flights Between American and Indian Cities

With Russia attacking Ukraine and a NATO-backed US-Russia proxy war starting in 2022, many Western countries and Western allies have sanctioned Russia, and one of the results of these sanctions is the inability to fly over Russian airspace. Airlines in NATO countries and their allies like Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan have not been able to fly over Russian airspace. Meanwhile, airlines in neutral countries like the UAE and India have been able to cut the time spent flying over Russia, giving them a true competitive advantage. Air India has a monopoly over nonstop flights between Indian and US cities, which will likely not last that long with Trump coming into office.

Competition leads to innovation, so it would be good to see Air India compete with US airlines. US airlines will likely relaunch routes to Indian cities after Trump negotiates a peace deal with Ukraine and Russia. For this reason, it would be likely that we could see a rise in many routes between Indian and American cities. To start, we could see United Airlines also add routes from their San Francisco hub to Indian cities, competing with Air India on popular routes like San Francisco to Bengaluru, attracting business travel within the tech industry. On top of this, we could see American Airlines finally launch the Seattle to Bengaluru flight they had planned before the COVID-19 pandemic. In terms of Delta Airlines, we don’t know what is next for them and their entry into the Indian market.

Increased Trade Between India and The United States

Trump has proposed bringing back a lot of industry to the United States and place tariffs on many countries, especially targeting China. While many industries will return to the United States, we could still see some jobs moving out of China and India due to cheaper labor. Many higher-level jobs within the manufacturing process, such as car assembly, will likely be in the United States. However, part manufacturing could still be outsourced with tariffs, and India could be exempt from tariffs as long as they use the US dollar. Current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former US President who has been re-elected Donald J Trump have an excellent relationship, and as a result, India could likely be exempt from many of the tariffs placed on other countries.

Looking at this, you may wonder how this impacts travel between the United States and India, for which I believe there will be more demand for flying between American and Indian cities. Most international travel is done by business travelers, not just leisure travelers. With the potential for increased trade between the United States and India, we could see more demand for nonstop flights, resulting in more people flying between these countries. It still is a significant question whether the demand will be taken on by hub and spoke giants or by US or Indian airlines, but demand for flights between India and the United States is likely going to be something that we see come along.

Conclusion

Furthermore, with Trump coming into office, there is likely going to be more travel between the United States and India, as Modi is likely going to be able to negotiate a deal with Trump where India is exempt from a lot of the tariffs Trump imposes on other countries. On top of this, we can see with a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia that there could potentially be more competition for Air India, as US airlines will likely relaunch their routes to India that require flying over Russia. On top of this Air India has a lot planned for 2025, so it is generally going to be an interesting year with a lot of possible outcomes.

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